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Expertise · Scenario Simulation

Model the decision before you make it.

Scenario simulation tests a business decision against your cost model before you commit: re-price a customer tier, change the mix, consolidate orders, then compare the projected margin against today's baseline.

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Your numbers

€12.0M
12.0%
€1.34M
50%

A rough shape, from averages. A real model attributes this down to each customer and order.

Scenario vs baseline

€670K
contribution recovered from the loss-making cohort
EBITDA today€1.44M
EBITDA after€2.11M
Margin movement+5.6pp
EBITDA margin · base12.0%
EBITDA margin · scenario17.6%

Why simulate at all?

A cost model tells you where you stand. A scenario tells you what happens if you move. Once cost is attributed properly, you can copy a baseline, change the assumptions, re-price a tier, drop a product line, consolidate a customer's orders, and see the EBITDA outcome side by side. The numbers your finance team can stand behind in a board meeting, before the decision is taken rather than after.

This is how one distributor worked: the model wasn't a list of customers to cut, it was a roadmap of decisions, each one tested and revisited as the model updated.

Read the case study →

Common questions

What is profitability scenario modelling?
Testing a business decision against a cost model before making it: re-pricing a customer tier, changing product mix, or consolidating orders, then comparing the projected margin against the current baseline.
Is the calculator a substitute for a model?
No. The calculator illustrates the shape of the opportunity from a few inputs. A real engagement attributes cost down to the individual customer and order, so scenarios reflect your actual book rather than averages.

Run your real numbers, not the averages.

Take the Profit Check Book a scoping call