ABC / TDABC Analysis

The whale curve: where customer profitability really lives.

Rank every account from best to worst and plot the running total of profit. A minority climbs far above 100%. Then a long tail gives it all back. The Whale Curve is the one picture that makes hidden margin impossible to ignore - and the starting point for getting it back.

Cumulative profit · customers ranked best → worst
Most companies have never seen this line drawn.
Illustrative · B2B distributor
The whale curve, alive

Watch your profit change shape as the method gets honest.

Every company has a whale curve: a few relationships create the profit, a long tail quietly destroys it. What that curve looks like depends on three choices. Change them below and watch who really makes you money.

Illustrative model, synthetic data
Dimension
Costing methodology
Margin depth
objects ranked by margin, best to worst → cumulative net profit (EUR, illustrative)
The depth you chose

The method you chose

The same objects, as a heat map.

sorted by revenue, coloured by margin under the current choices · hover for detail
Once you can see it

The levers companies pull when the curve gets honest.

Seeing the shaded area is step one. Recovering it is a short list of well-known moves. We help you pick and quantify the right ones for your book.

01

Re-price the loss-makers

Price to the real cost-to-serve, not to revenue size. Charge for the behaviour that drives cost: small orders, rush, heavy support.

02

Set minimum order values

Stop subsidising tiny, high-touch orders with thresholds and small-order fees.

03

Re-negotiate terms and service levels

Align delivery frequency, payment terms and support to the account's economics.

04

Shift channel, serve to cost

Move small accounts to lower-cost channels: self-serve, distributor, consolidated delivery.

05

Rationalise the product tail

Cut or reprice the SKUs that never carry their cost-to-serve.

06

Cut the cost-to-serve itself

Consolidate deliveries, batch orders, automate the admin the tail quietly consumes.

07

Reallocate sales effort

Move commercial time from value-destroying accounts to the profitable head and its lookalikes.

08

Manage unused capacity

Right-size the resources whose practical capacity the tail was quietly burning.

This curve is illustrative. Yours is sitting in your ERP.

A Free Profit Check pulls your whale curve from your own ERP or accounting export. One export, no project, and you will know which quarter of your customers to talk about.

The lesson

One line, three truths about your customer base.

Standard reporting gives you a single profit number. The Whale Curve unpacks that number into a shape - and the shape tells you who built the profit, who is borrowing against it, and who is quietly destroying it.

The climb 01
A minority of accounts builds far more than 100% of your profit. This is your real engine - and usually smaller than leadership assumes.
The crest 02
The peak is your theoretical profit if you served only the accounts that pay their way. Everything to the right is profit you are giving back.
The tail 03
The long decline is value destruction: accounts that cost more to serve than they generate, dragging the cumulative line back down toward 100%.
Across decades of studies the pattern barely moves: roughly 20% of customers generate 150-300% of total profit, the middle breaks even, and the bottom fifth gives much of it back.
Why you have never seen it

Your P&L adds everything up. That is exactly the problem.

A profit-and-loss statement aggregates. It shows total margin but not which accounts created it and which destroyed it. The costs that sink the tail - picking, shipping, returns, rush orders, account admin - are real, but they are averaged across everyone. ABC and TDABC stop the averaging: every activity is traced to the account that drives it.

Where a euro of revenue actually goes - and why the cost to serve is usually invisible until you trace it.

The playbook

The ten moves that rebuild margin.

None of these is "fire your customers". Drawn from decades of customer-profitability practice, they fix the cause - pricing, complexity or cost-to-serve - before anyone considers walking away. Most companies need only four or five.

From curve to action

Every account gets one of four verbs.

Once true profit is on the table, the portfolio sorts itself. The Whale Curve is not a verdict on customers - it is an instruction set for what to do next with each one.

Grow
The crest

Your profit engine. Protect it, deepen it, and win more accounts that look like it. The fastest growth you have is the share you do not yet hold here.

Optimise
The shoulders

Profitable but leaky. Consolidate orders, simplify the mix and cut cost-to-serve. Small, unglamorous moves that compound across the base.

Reprice
The slope

Underwater on price, not on principle. Re-price, set minimums and charge for the behaviour that drives cost. Most of the tail recovers here.

Exit
The deep tail

The last resort, once every other move has failed. A small, deliberate offboarding - never a reflex.

How we build it

From your data to your curve, in 5-25 days.

A curve is only as trustworthy as the costing behind it. A volume-based or gross-margin view draws a misleading line; a TDABC model draws one you can act on, because every cost is traced to what actually consumes it.

STEP 01

Map the cost structure

We gather financial, operational and transaction data and group it into the activity pools that drive cost - picking, delivery, service, returns, credit.

STEP 02

Trace with time equations

TDABC allocates indirect cost by the real resource each account consumes, not by arbitrary volume keys. The over-serviced and over-discounted finally surface.

STEP 03

Rank, draw, decide

You receive the full ranking, your Whale Curve across every dimension, and a segmented portfolio with the recommended move for each tier.

Start with the free Profit Check.
Five minutes, no data upload - a first read on where your hidden margin sits.
Take the Profit Check
Questions

The Whale Curve, answered.

It is the visual output of a cumulative profitability analysis. Accounts - or products, channels, regions - are ranked from most to least profitable and their cumulative contribution to profit is plotted. The line rises to a peak well above 100% and then declines as loss-making accounts erode the total back toward 100%.

Because a minority of customers typically generate 150-300% of total profit. The crest is the profit you would keep if you only served the accounts that pay their way; the decline back to 100% is the margin the tail gives away.

Yes. The same cumulative method applies to any dimension - products and SKUs, sales channels, regions or segments. Each lens usually reveals its own tail of value destruction, which is why we build the curve several ways, not one.

With Activity-Based Costing (ABC) and Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC). We trace the true cost of each activity - logistics, service, returns, credit - to the account that consumes it, then rank by net contribution. The build typically takes 5-25 working days depending on data availability.

Segment every account into Grow, Optimise, Reprice or Exit, then model the profit impact of each move before acting - exactly what the simulator above demonstrates. The goal is rarely to fire customers; it is to fix the pricing, complexity or cost-to-serve that put them underwater.

Start here

Find out where your hidden margin lives.

The Profit Check takes five minutes and no data upload. You get a personalised read on your profitability - and a sense of how steep your own whale really is.

Proof2013: we brought Gary Cokins and seven world leaders to Serralves.
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